Robusta Production Forecast 2026/27: USDA Numbers for Coffee Buyers

Quick answer: USDA's July 2026 forecast puts world Robusta production for 2026/27 at 83.8 million 60-kg bags, down 0.7% from last year's record but still the second-highest crop on record. Vietnam is forecast at a record 32.5 million bags of coffee in total, including 31.4 million bags of Robusta, while Brazil's Robusta output is expected to fall by 600,000 bags to 24.4 million. For buyers of Fine Robusta, the message is ample commodity supply: the scarce input is not volume but verified, high-scoring lots.

What USDA published

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service released the first 2026/27 edition of its Coffee: World Markets and Trade report on Wednesday 22 July 2026, about a month later than usual according to the trade outlet Comunicaffe, which summarised the report. The figures most relevant to Robusta:

• World coffee production: 189.667 million bags, up 10.8 million (+6%).
• Arabica: 105.867 million bags, up 12.1% to an all-time high.
• Robusta: 83.8 million bags, down 0.7% from last year's record but still the second-highest figure on record.
• Brazil (all coffee): a record 71.9 million bags, up 8.9 million (+14.1%). Brazilian Robusta is forecast to retreat 600,000 bags to 24.4 million, because cooler temperatures and periods of heavy rain lowered yields in Espirito Santo, where about 70% of Brazil's Robusta is grown.
• Vietnam: a record 32.5 million bags, up 800,000, of which 31.4 million are Robusta. USDA's Ho Chi Minh City post attributes the increase to expanding area and higher yields. Comunicaffe reports Vietnamese exports forecast at 28.95 million bags and domestic consumption reaching a record 5 million.
• Indonesia: production forecast to fall by 1 million bags to 11.4 million, a decline Comunicaffe says is entirely due to Robusta, after excessive rainfall during flowering and cherry formation in Southern Sumatra and Java.

Bags are 60 kg each, and marketing years differ by country; Brazil's runs from July to June.

Our arithmetic from USDA's figures: Vietnam's 31.4 million bags is roughly 37% of the forecast world Robusta crop, and Brazil's 24.4 million is about 29%. Two countries therefore supply about two-thirds of the world's Robusta.

How to read the numbers

The Robusta dip is small. A 0.7% decline after a record year is a return to a high plateau, not a shortage. The bigger swing is in Arabica, up more than 12%, which changes the relative supply picture between the two species.

Forecasts are ranges, not facts. USDA's Brazil attaché report notes that CONAB and IBGE, Brazil's two official forecasters, use different methods and have historically diverged. When USDA published, Comunicaffe noted that its 71.9 million-bag figure was above Conab's 66.7 million. On 25 September Comunicaffe's headline reported Conab's third estimate at 67.6 million bags, with Robusta at 19.4 million (down 6.6%), well below USDA's 24.4 million. The gap may reflect different definitions or methods, and we have not reconciled them; the point is that the same crop looks different depending on who is counting.

Weather is the swing factor. The USDA-based reports cite too much rain and cool weather in Brazil's and Indonesia's Robusta areas, and favourable conditions and expanded area in Vietnam. A forecast made before harvest is complete will be revised.

Vietnam is repositioning. The USDA post describes Vietnam as moving from a volume exporter toward higher-quality, more sustainable products, including premium Robusta for modern brewing, while cautioning that the EU deforestation regulation will likely affect export performance. That matters for Fine Robusta because the largest producer is now openly investing in quality claims.

What this means for Fine Robusta buyers

1. Volume is not the constraint. With Robusta output near record levels, commodity Robusta is easy to find. Fine Robusta is different: it is defined by lot-level assessment, such as the CQI R Coffee System, not by species or country.
2. Small origins are invisible in global totals. Khmer Times, citing the Cambodia Coffee Association, reported local supply of just over 1,000 tonnes against demand of about 20,000 tonnes. World Robusta at 83.8 million bags is roughly 5 million tonnes, so Cambodia's supply is about 0.02% of the total. Cambodian coffee will not move benchmark prices; any case for it has to rest on documented quality and traceability, lot by lot.
3. Production and price are separate questions. This report forecasts output, not prices. A buyer pricing a specialty lot still needs the current futures level, the quality differential for that lot, and freight.

For how quality is judged at lot level, see What Does Fine Robusta Coffee Taste Like? and Fine Robusta vs Arabica: What Buyers Should Understand.

What to watch next

• The December USDA update. The report is published twice a year, so the next edition will revise the Robusta and Vietnam figures.
• Vietnam's harvest. USDA's 32.5 million-bag forecast is a pre-harvest estimate, so yield and quality outcomes will only become clear as the new crop is picked and shipped.
• Brazil's estimates. USDA's Brazil report says the 2026/27 harvest began slowly in April and gained pace by mid-May, with a larger arabica outlook pushing prices lower. Watch whether Conab's lower Robusta figure or USDA's higher one proves closer.
• Regulation. The EU deforestation regulation is flagged in USDA's Vietnam report as a factor that could affect export volumes.

What the forecast does not tell you

• It is not a price forecast, and it says nothing about quality or about origins outside the largest producers.
• This year's first edition was delayed to July, so timing of revisions may differ from earlier years.
• USDA describes a supply surplus that allows partial stock rebuilding even with consumption also at a record (179.736 million bags, up 3.6%), so a large crop does not by itself mean easy conditions for every buyer.

Frequently asked questions

How much Robusta will the world produce in 2026/27?

USDA forecasts 83.8 million 60-kg bags, down 0.7% from last year's record and the second-highest total ever.

Is Vietnam still the largest Robusta producer?

Yes. USDA forecasts 31.4 million bags of Vietnamese Robusta in 2026/27, about 37% of the world total by our calculation.

Does a bigger crop make Fine Robusta cheaper?

The forecast does not answer that. Fine Robusta trades on lot quality and buyer demand as well as on the benchmark, so buyers should ask for lot-specific quotes rather than infer prices from production totals.

Limitations

We read Comunicaffe's full summary of the USDA report (23 July 2026) and search excerpts of USDA's Vietnam and Brazil attaché reports; USDA's own PDF blocked automated access, so we did not check the tables directly. The Conab September figures come from a Comunicaffe headline and were not read in full. Percentages we calculated ourselves are labelled as such. Forecasts will change.

Sources

• Comunicaffe, 'USDA: World coffee production (+6%), exports (+9%) and global consumption (+3.6%) set to reach all-time highs during CY 2026/27' (23 July 2026): https://www.comunicaffe.com/usda-world-coffee-production-6-exports-9-and-global-consumption-3-6-set-to-reach-record-levels-in-2026-27
• USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Coffee: World Markets and Trade (July 2026): https://www.fas.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2026-07/coffee.pdf
• USDA FAS, Coffee Annual, Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam), 2026: https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Coffee+Annual_Ho+Chi+Minh+City_Vietnam\_VM2026-0016.pdf
• USDA FAS, Coffee Annual, Brasilia (Brazil), June 2026: https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/gain-report/2026/06/Coffee%20Annual_Brasilia_Brazil\_BR2026-0025.pdf
• Comunicaffe, 'Brazil, Conab's third estimate: Record output at 67.6 million bags (+19.6%), with Arabica at 48.2 million (+34.8%) and Robusta at 19.4 million (-6,6%)' (25 September 2026): https://www.comunicaffe.com/brazil-conabs-third-estimate-record-output-at-67-6m-bags-19-6-arabica-at-48-2m-34-8-robusta-at-19-4m-6-6/
• Khmer Times, 'New research initiative to boost Mondulkiri coffee' (25 June 2026): https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501926824/new-research-initiative-to-boost-mondulkiri-coffee/